Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

61 0x6150…f293 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized +$75 · open −$99

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate63%12W / 7L

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+2.9%	-6.9%	63%	58%	+3.4%
≤30d	19	+2.9%	-6.9%	63%	58%	+3.4%
≤90d	19	+2.9%	-6.9%	63%	58%	+3.4%
all	19	+2.9%	-6.9%	63%	58%	+3.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.9%	58%	+3.4%
10% ← realistic here	-15.8%	58%	-6.5%
15%	-23.9%	53%	-15.5%
20%	-31.4%	37%	-23.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 27% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -20% → late +23% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$75

Unrealized−$99

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses12 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	74¢	0¢	$100	$1	−$99 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$13	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$21	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$28	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 21	$52	+$24	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$28	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$28	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$25	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$19	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 21	$25	+$9	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$16	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 21	$76	+$6	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$102	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$39	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$47	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$54	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$49	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$27	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$26	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$34	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$25	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $123.12 · 41 history records