Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6150…ac29 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+5%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 16 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 50% -5.4%
all 16 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 50% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -5.4%
10% -29.3% 38% -14.5%
15% -36.2% 19% -22.7%
20% -42.4% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $75 +$163 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $67 +$24 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $93 +$45 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $57 +$52 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records