Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x614e…f00f politics 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,512 (-2%) realized −$3,512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%30W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,254per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$20
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$100
other 36% +$94
sports 14% −$3,514
culture 5% −$10
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +3.4% -6.4% 9% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 94 -7.2% -16.1% 5% 3% -12.2%
all 147 +5.2% -4.8% 20% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 12% -11.3%
10% -13.9% 12% -19.7%
15% -22.2% 10% -27.5%
20% -29.9% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,587) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$37 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$3,512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses30 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,254
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $393 $394 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $510 +$2 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,499 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,934 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,967 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $4,267 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $811 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,199 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $886 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $988 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $69 +$57 +83%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,151 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,709 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,565 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,611 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,949 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,147 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $5,522 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $421 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $421 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $434 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $435 6h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 28h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 30h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $491 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $491 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $485 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $486 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $528 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $529 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $537 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $538 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $529 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $530 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $561 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $562 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $393 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $898 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $899 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $741 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $742 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.57 · official $393.57 (match) · 463 history records