Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x614e…ddf8 other 93 markets active 6h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+4%) realized +$94 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate78%50W / 14L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$20
14 days+$25
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$36
politics 14% +$10
world 5% +$23
finance 1% +$7
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.7% -0.8% 73% 21% -7.5%
≤30d 63 +7.7% -2.5% 78% 24% -5.4%
≤90d 64 +8.2% -2.1% 78% 25% -5.2%
all 64 +8.2% -2.1% 78% 25% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 25% -5.2%
10% -11.4% 20% -14.3%
15% -20.0% 17% -22.5%
20% -27.8% 9% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.33 per $1 lost it wins $7.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses50 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)64 / 93
History coverage37d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $31 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026? No 72¢ 69¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 85¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 16 $568 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $62 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $1 +$5 +488%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $17 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 09 $37 +$3 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$4 +170%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 03 $19 +$8 +46%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 03 $32 +$14 +44%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 8h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 14h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 SELL No 97¢ $20 21h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 25h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $0 25h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 27h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 96¢ $10 27h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 27h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 27h
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $1 29h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $328 31h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 95¢ $29 31h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 32h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 39h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 39h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 2 BUY No 97¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.36 · official $348.36 (match) · 241 history records