Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x614d…6538 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$388 (-29%) realized −$388 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$139
14 days+$139
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$333
politics 2% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +270.8% +235.5% 100% 100% +235.5%
≤30d 2 +137.5% +114.9% 100% 50% +55.7%
≤90d 2 +137.5% +114.9% 100% 50% +55.7%
all 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 25% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 25% -33.1%
10% -9.1% 25% -39.5%
15% -17.9% 12% -45.3%
20% -25.9% 12% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$124 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$388
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage165d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$139 +271%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 23 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Marc-André ter Stegen sign with a new club during the winter tran Feb 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Feb 06 $755 −$258 -34%
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 11 $301 −$228 -76%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 08 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET Jan 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $190 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $150 29d
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? SELL Yes 43¢ $497 134d
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 66¢ $682 159d
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 59¢ $73 159d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? SELL Yes 10¢ $73 159d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 39¢ $173 163d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 163d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 163d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 38¢ $44 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 163d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 163d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 164d
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 165d
Will Marc-André ter Stegen sign with a new club during the winter tran BUY Yes 80¢ $30 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records