Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x6142…9bd6 crypto 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,992 (-8%) realized −$4,992 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%151W / 171L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$183
14 days−$183
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,763
other 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -33.7%
≤30d 15 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -33.7%
≤90d 25 -30.2% -36.8% 36% 36% -31.9%
all 322 -2.6% -11.8% 47% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -17.8%
10% -20.3% 41% -25.7%
15% -28.0% 36% -32.8%
20% -35.0% 30% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$155 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,992
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses151 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)322 / 322
History coverage114d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 322 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$38 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$21 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $73 −$45 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$41 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $39 +$72 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$18 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 12 $70 −$67 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $70 −$66 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 12 $190 −$181 -96%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 12 $78 +$221 +283%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 12 $30 +$24 +78%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 01 $35 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 01 $31 +$5 +15%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 12 $281 −$276 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 12 $172 −$170 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 12 $611 −$192 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 12 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 12 $53 −$53 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 12 $271 +$158 +58%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $179 −$179 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $236 −$236 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 12 $206 −$206 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 12 $365 −$365 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 12 $401 −$401 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 12 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 12 $319 −$319 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 12 $240 −$240 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 12 $425 −$425 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $54 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $45 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $35 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $70 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1003 history records