Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613d…86c6 world 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$4
other 17% +$2
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% −$3
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 38 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 8% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 27 $1 $0 -17%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 19 $17 −$3 -19%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $19 −$1 -4%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +12%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce U.S. purchasing crypto on Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $16 28m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $31 28m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $47 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $48 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $48 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $7 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $50 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records