Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613d…6aa2 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-20%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$162
other 17% −$27
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.2% -58.5% 17% 0% -32.4%
≤30d 6 -54.2% -58.5% 17% 0% -32.4%
≤90d 94 -37.0% -43.0% 27% 22% -41.5%
all 94 -37.0% -43.0% 27% 22% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 22% -41.5%
10% -48.4% 18% -47.1%
15% -53.4% 15% -52.2%
20% -58.0% 12% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$4 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $106 −$13 -13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 17 $22 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 17 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $3 +$5 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 17 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 17 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 17 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 17 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 17 $1 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 17 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 17 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 17 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 17 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 17 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $1 $0 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $67 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.00 · official $71.00 (match) · 299 history records