Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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61 0x613b…823a sports 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 247d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38,188 (-5%) realized −$38,668 · open +$480
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%174W / 163L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,258per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$2,387est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,808
7 days−$39,574
14 days−$43,573
30 days−$21,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$25,017
other 26% −$21,337
world 1% +$5,066
politics 1% −$696
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 50% -26.8%
≤30d 46 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 46% -16.7%
≤90d 155 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 35% -21.5%
all 337 -4.6% -13.7% 52% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 46% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -22.7%
15% -29.5% 28% -30.2%
20% -36.4% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,547) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,019 vs −$1,348 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$10,175
Realized−$38,668
Unrealized+$480
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses174 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,387
Open positions6
Markets (closed)337 / 343
History coverage247d ⚠
Avg bet$2,258
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $6,324 $6,482 +$158 (+2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 100¢ $2,550 $2,996 +$446 (+17%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 83¢ 84¢ $304 $310 +$6 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $162 $246 +$84 (+52%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $138 $136 −$2 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $217 $5 −$212 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,326 +$1,270 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13,430 −$13,245 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1,807 +$1,393 +77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7,498 +$1,502 +20%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7,806 −$7,804 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,333 +$6 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,394 −$2,353 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,351 +$36 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $587 +$233 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $834 +$4,066 +488%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,339 −$2,201 -51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36,689 +$1,106 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46,136 +$4,184 +9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,412 +$1,138 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,884 +$5,066 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16,273 +$6,713 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $440 +$262 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $159 +$287 +180%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,816 +$685 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,067 −$3,046 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 −$189 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $652 +$193 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37,478 −$37,314 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $293 −$203 -69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $975 −$968 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $373 +$112 +30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $896 −$889 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $812 +$388 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $774 +$522 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $936 −$926 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $245 +$252 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21,106 +$209 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9,266 −$4,056 -44%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $3,088 +$1,342 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1,342 −$1,334 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $9,430 +$13,005 +138%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $335 −$327 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 03 $684 −$676 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $278 +$312 +112%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $2,171 +$8,286 +382%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $12,399 +$2,371 +19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $347 −$344 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $187 −$184 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $200 −$196 -98%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $227 +$269 +119%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 20 $2,634 +$1,096 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $1,639 +$2,111 +129%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $5,827 −$4,902 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $895 38m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $5 50m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $1,110 50m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $36 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $141 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $247 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $317 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $392 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $360 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $6,460 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $888 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $6,047 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 56¢ $1,807 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 83¢ $0 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 83¢ $21 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 83¢ $7,477 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $34 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $116 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $12 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $998 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $15 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $177 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $73 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $8 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $19 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $158 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $18 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,174.98 · official $10,174.86 (match) · 3500 history records