Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x613b…da44 weather 923 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3500 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$13,560 (+5568%) realized +$10,795 · open +$2,765
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +234% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +157% what you keep after slip
Net edge+157%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%181W / 97L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day3500.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$2,572
weather 32% +$60
crypto 9% +$49
sports 5% +$49
tech 4% +$33
politics 3% +$95
world 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3500 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+202.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 +234.3% +202.4% 65% 64% +90.1%
≤30d 278 +234.3% +202.4% 65% 64% +90.1%
≤90d 278 +234.3% +202.4% 65% 64% +90.1%
all 278 +234.3% +202.4% 65% 64% +90.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +202.4% 64% +90.1%
10% ← realistic here +173.5% 62% +71.9%
15% +147.1% 60% +55.3%
20% +122.8% 59% +40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +234% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +294% → late +175% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.67 per $1 lost it wins $6.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,954
Realized+$10,795
Unrealized+$2,765
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses181 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions500
Markets (closed)278 / 923
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day3500.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austin Reaves play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $44 +$44 (+44150%)
Will Solana reach $130 June 22-28? Yes 0¢ 43¢ $0 $43 +$43 (+21575%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $40 +$40 (+44000%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $40 +$39 (+43700%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+43450%)
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 39¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+19425%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+41550%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 37¢ $0 $37 +$37 (+36700%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $36 +$36 (+36150%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 1¢ 35¢ $1 $35 +$35 (+6572%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 39¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+11190%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+9091%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 38¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+38250%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 41¢ $0 $34 +$34 (+20236%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 32¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+7329%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+8790%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 32¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+9869%)
Will Platense win Copa Libertadores? Yes 0¢ 33¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+7466%)
Will Jamieson Greer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 1¢ 34¢ $1 $31 +$30 (+4659%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 31¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+30650%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 34¢ $0 $31 +$30 (+9290%)
Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 32¢ $0 $30 +$29 (+7410%)
Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Yes 1¢ 40¢ $1 $29 +$29 (+4300%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 30¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+6153%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 45¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+44950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +69%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 +52%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +392%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 +326%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 +1903%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 25 $0 $0 -74%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 +200%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 +5375%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 +19%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $0 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $0 +$1 +275%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 25 $0 $0 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cu Jun 25 $0 +$1 +1250%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $0 $0 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 +$1 +128%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +116%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +410%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 -82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +270%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -85%
Will Yassine Bounou record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $0 $0 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +167%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? Jun 25 $0 $0 -64%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 25 $2 +$5 +307%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on June 27? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +113%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard H Jun 25 $0 $0 -34%
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 25 $0 $0 +3924%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 25 $0 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $0 $0 -90%
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 +328%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Ho Soccer be the brand of gloves worn by the Golden Glove winner BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will XRP dip to $0.85 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Christopher Gygès be the next President of the Government of New BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will Gilbert Tyuienon be the next President of the Government of New C BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Set Handicap: Feistel (-1.5) vs Serban (+1.5) BUY Feistel 0¢ $0 3m
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on June 26 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4m
Set Handicap: Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Watson (+1.5) BUY Timofeeva 0¢ $0 5m
Set Handicap: Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Watson (+1.5) BUY Timofeeva 0¢ $0 5m
Set Handicap: Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Watson (+1.5) BUY Timofeeva 0¢ $0 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,954.45 · official $3,890.74 · 3500 history records