Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x613b…fdff finance 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,097 (+11%) realized +$2,059 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,095per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$161
14 days+$1,610
30 days+$1,376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$665
finance 38% −$672
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.6% +17.2% 100% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 6 +24.6% +12.7% 83% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 10 -4.2% -13.4% 60% 30% -10.0%
all 15 -20.0% -27.7% 53% 27% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 27% -10.0%
10% -34.6% 20% -18.6%
15% -40.9% 20% -26.5%
20% -46.7% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$332 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,245
Realized+$2,059
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,095
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $1,133 $1,193 +$60 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $73 $52 −$22 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $4,550 +$101 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 21 $106 +$60 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,128 +$1,449 +128%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,211 +$51 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4,202 +$529 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $1,433 −$814 -57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 23 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 23 $1,635 −$1,405 -86%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $186 −$62 -33%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 26 $1,088 +$17 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $284 +$6 +2%
Will Hillary say "Prince" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Hillary say "Massage" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $62 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $460 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 45¢ $460 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $2,174 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $2,174 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 39h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $209 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $65 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $94 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $83 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $108 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 43¢ $167 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $4,550 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 26¢ $106 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $115 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $3,141 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $86 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,329 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $97 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,244.61 · official $1,244.61 (match) · 105 history records