Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613a…51b3 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 19% $0
politics 9% −$13
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -10.9%
all 20 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 0% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -13.1%
10% -23.9% 0% -21.4%
15% -31.3% 0% -29.0%
20% -38.0% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage473d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $43 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 -9%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $28 $0 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $1 $0 -28%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $29 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $29 $0 -0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $14 −$14 -96%
Davidson vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 3d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $41 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $31 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $9 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $27 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $16 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.90 · official $35.91 (match) · 62 history records