Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613a…2185 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,374 (-8%) realized +$2,330 · open −$3,704
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$2,073
other 44% −$2,070
crypto 11% −$1,066
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +11.9% +1.3% 41% 33% -22.0%
≤30d 27 +11.9% +1.3% 41% 33% -22.0%
≤90d 27 +11.9% +1.3% 41% 33% -22.0%
all 27 +11.9% +1.3% 41% 33% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 33% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 22% -29.5%
15% -17.3% 22% -36.3%
20% -25.4% 19% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$536) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$247 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,594
Realized+$2,330
Unrealized−$3,704
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions18
Markets (closed)27 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $640 $649 +$9 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 90¢ 100¢ $486 $540 +$54 (+11%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $153 $143 −$10 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 12¢ $127 $96 −$31 (-25%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $67 $59 −$8 (-12%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? No 96¢ 97¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 66¢ 41¢ $30 $18 −$11 (-38%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 55¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1,739 $3 −$1,736 (-100%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 62¢ 0¢ $1,749 $1 −$1,748 (-100%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 16¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $21 +$79 +385%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 +$148 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,970 −$45 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,502 +$91 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $167 +$854 +510%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $173 +$23 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $506 +$189 +37%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $410 +$9 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $229 +$50 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $24 −$23 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $541 −$528 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $227 −$227 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $740 −$740 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $590 +$67 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $536 −$58 -11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$359 +178%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $637 +$571 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,488 −$1,378 -93%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $439 −$429 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 6m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $487 20m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $4 28m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $14 28m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 9¢ $6 28m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $22 39m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $34 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $24 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 56¢ $47 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $123 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 62¢ $1,600 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $32 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $49 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 96¢ $47 3h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 20¢ $21 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 2¢ $2 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $155 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $511 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,217 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $167 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $1,454 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $86 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.95 · official $1,594.07 (match) · 115 history records