Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6139…6b7a world 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$725,362 (+104%) realized +$706,838 · open +$18,524
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%48W / 325L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,855per market
Trades / day122.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$407,916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$19,499
politics 33% −$4,457
other 19% +$33,571
crypto 9% +$400
finance 0% −$739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -64.9% -68.3% 7% 5% -64.7%
≤30d 373 -53.9% -58.3% 13% 8% -49.6%
≤90d 373 -53.9% -58.3% 13% 8% -49.6%
all 373 -53.9% -58.3% 13% 8% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.3% 8% -49.6%
10% -62.3% 7% -54.4%
15% ← realistic here -65.9% 6% -58.8%
20% -69.2% 5% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$762) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$991 vs −$1,000 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$407,916
Realized+$706,838
Unrealized+$18,524
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses48 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Open positions163
Markets (closed)373 / 143
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$4,855
Trades / day122.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 163 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 90¢ $22,702 $34,563 +$11,862 (+52%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $25,000 $33,375 +$8,375 (+34%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 70¢ 99¢ $22,915 $32,268 +$9,353 (+41%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 44¢ $20,783 $24,877 +$4,094 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $18,540 $19,830 +$1,290 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $25,000 $16,625 −$8,375 (-34%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 81¢ 98¢ $9,671 $11,719 +$2,048 (+21%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $13,305 $10,872 −$2,434 (-18%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 73¢ 98¢ $8,033 $10,844 +$2,811 (+35%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $9,247 $10,284 +$1,037 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9,100 $9,550 +$450 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $9,615 $9,364 −$251 (-3%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,992 $9,323 +$2,331 (+33%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 60¢ 90¢ $5,639 $8,415 +$2,776 (+49%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 84¢ 82¢ $8,400 $8,250 −$150 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $7,220 $7,283 +$62 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 46¢ $8,038 $6,547 −$1,492 (-19%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $3,629 $5,358 +$1,729 (+48%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 71¢ 96¢ $3,849 $5,165 +$1,316 (+34%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 75¢ 84¢ $4,601 $5,126 +$525 (+11%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 99¢ 98¢ $4,927 $4,880 −$47 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 58¢ 60¢ $4,665 $4,785 +$121 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $6,574 $4,743 −$1,831 (-28%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $3,890 $4,069 +$179 (+5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3,350 $3,714 +$364 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Trump tweet on inauguration day? Jun 15 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats i Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"? Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" at debate? Jun 15 $752 −$751 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Jun 15 $1,034 −$636 -62%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia speech on Oct 15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 15 $495 +$660 +133%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 15 $23,825 −$23,825 -100%
Will the Jatiya Party finish with the second most seats in the Banglad Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump positive favorability on March 1? Jun 15 $1,591 −$1,591 -100%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win fewer than 60 seats in the 2026 Thai Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 15 $1,764 −$1,590 -90%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Jun 15 $2,816 −$2,816 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$851 -564%
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30? Jun 15 $6,234 −$6,234 -100%
Will Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK win the Gorton and Denton by-election Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 15 $489 +$127 +26%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Jun 15 $481 −$481 -100%
Trump positive favorability on April 1? Jun 15 $2,577 −$2,577 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 15 $559 −$559 -100%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $687 −$687 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $673 −$1,948 -290%
Will the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win 140 or more seats in the 2026 Tha Jun 15 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference? Jun 15 $938 −$938 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"? Jun 15 $68 −$66 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $566 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 2h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $43 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $93 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $71 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $86 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $127 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $207 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $0 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $51 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $57 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $18 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $600 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407,915.64 · official $407,914.06 (match) · 3500 history records