trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +47.4% | +33.3% | 100% | 100% | +33.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +64.5% | +48.8% | 83% | 83% | +66.0% |
| ≤90d | 250 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 53% | 53% | +6.6% |
| all | 338 | -2.0% | -11.4% | 53% | 52% | -0.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 52% | -0.7% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 51% | -10.2% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 47% | -18.9% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 37% | -26.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | $304 | $304 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 64¢ | 32¢ | $427 | $218 | −$208 (-49%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $162 | $142 | −$20 (-12%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 55¢ | 28¢ | $254 | $128 | −$126 (-50%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 41¢ | $102 | $110 | +$8 (+8%) |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | Team Falcons | 42¢ | 40¢ | $50 | $49 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $167 | +$79 | +47% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | Jun 11 | $31 | −$13 | -43% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? | Jun 04 | $357 | +$600 | +168% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? | Jun 04 | $284 | +$216 | +76% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | Jun 04 | $328 | +$272 | +83% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | Jun 02 | $653 | +$366 | +56% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 20 | $285 | −$128 | -45% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 18 | $250 | +$127 | +51% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 14 | $50 | −$14 | -27% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 09 | $221 | −$43 | -19% |
| Blues vs. Avalanche | Apr 08 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Spread: Auburn Tigers (-5.5) | Apr 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Predators vs. Kings | Apr 08 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Senators | Apr 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Devils vs. Canadiens | Apr 08 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Oklahoma Sooners vs. West Virginia Mountaineers | Apr 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5) | Apr 08 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 07 | $250 | −$34 | -14% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Apr 07 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: Sharks (-1.5) | Apr 07 | $15 | +$9 | +57% |
| Kraken vs. Jets | Apr 07 | $17 | +$11 | +64% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | Apr 06 | $8 | +$6 | +73% |
| Rockets vs. Warriors | Apr 06 | $17 | +$10 | +60% |
| Magic vs. Pelicans | Apr 06 | $18 | +$10 | +52% |
| Wild vs. Red Wings | Apr 06 | $17 | +$15 | +85% |
| Panthers vs. Penguins | Apr 06 | $38 | +$18 | +47% |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Apr 05 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Kraken | Apr 05 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Red Wings vs. Rangers | Apr 05 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 157.5 | Apr 05 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears | Apr 05 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | Apr 05 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Capitals | Apr 05 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Spread: Ducks (-1.5) | Apr 05 | $8 | +$4 | +52% |
| Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5) | Apr 05 | $13 | +$6 | +48% |
| Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5 | Apr 05 | $12 | +$8 | +62% |
| Bruins vs. Lightning | Apr 05 | $13 | +$8 | +59% |
| West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Creighton Bluejays | Apr 05 | $12 | +$12 | +93% |
| Islanders vs. Hurricanes | Apr 05 | $17 | +$7 | +41% |
| Panthers vs. Penguins | Apr 05 | $17 | +$8 | +47% |
| Predators vs. Sharks | Apr 05 | $12 | +$14 | +108% |
| Utah vs. Canucks | Apr 05 | $17 | +$9 | +49% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Kings | Apr 05 | $18 | +$10 | +56% |
| Wild vs. Senators | Apr 05 | $14 | +$17 | +117% |
| Canadiens vs. Devils | Apr 05 | $17 | +$16 | +89% |
| Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 | Apr 04 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Kings | Apr 04 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Mavericks | Apr 04 | $19 | +$8 | +42% |
| Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5 | Apr 04 | $12 | +$13 | +104% |