Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6137…762e world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3
other 24% −$5
politics 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 44 -3.0% -12.2% 30% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage460d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 65¢ 57¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $66 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $32 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.2-1.6m opening weekend? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $1 $0 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $32 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $29 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $19 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $19 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $14 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $22 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $11 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records