Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6136…64f8 sports 888 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,285 (-216%) realized −$8,260 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%412W / 671L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$313
other 17% +$166
weather 16% +$26
politics 5% +$336
world 1% +$5
finance 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$4
tech 0% +$11
culture 0% +$3
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 -88.4% -89.5% 7% 5% -97.2%
≤30d 410 -43.9% -49.2% 22% 18% -80.6%
≤90d 1083 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 32% -52.1%
all 1083 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 32% -52.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 32% -52.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 28% -56.7%
15% -35.6% 24% -60.9%
20% -41.9% 20% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$8,260
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses412 / 671
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions108
Markets (closed)1083 / 888
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 80¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+456%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 95¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+148%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 55¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+123%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+97%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 71¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027? No 85¢ 95¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 65¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027? Yes 38¢ 51¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 48¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 65¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Yes 46¢ 59¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+57%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-40%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 364 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$6 -41%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs Clutchain Female (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 +3%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 255m? Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Assche vs. Dellien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $4 −$6 -145%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-01? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on May 2? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $1 2m
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2m
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5m
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5m
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 62¢ $3 5m
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 47m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 56m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 59m
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 61¢ $3 2h
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 78¢ $3 3h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 78¢ $3 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 5h
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 5h
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 6h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 93¢ $1 7h
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 93¢ $1 7h
Will "Peter" be said 3+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.35 · official $425.22 (match) · 3500 history records