Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6134…c8cc sports 1370 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$800 (-1%) realized −$656 · open −$144
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%759W / 599L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$438est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days+$67
14 days−$710
30 days−$1,530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,872
other 40% +$1,438
crypto 3% −$378
world 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 60% -7.6%
≤30d 324 -2.9% -12.2% 57% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 1358 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 54% -10.3%
all 1358 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 54% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 51% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 45% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$656
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses759 / 599
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$438
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1358 / 1370
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $98 −$4 (-3%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 100¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+49%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $56 −$34 (-38%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $73 $26 −$47 (-64%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$97 +49%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $99 −$19 -19%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 +$15 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $231 −$228 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$33 +32%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$59 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $127 −$126 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $67 +$20 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 +$22 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $47 −$46 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $37 −$34 -90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 +$20 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $123 +$56 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $18 +$13 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $113 +$78 +69%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$73 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $47 +$16 +34%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $29 +$11 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $71 +$53 +75%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $32 −$1 -4%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 +$19 +47%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $32 +$32 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $131 +$55 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 +$21 +52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $59 −$58 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $30 +$17 +58%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $54 +$52 +97%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $51 +$81 +158%
England vs. Costa Rica: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -5%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $30 −$2 -6%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $51 +$14 +27%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $51 +$20 +39%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $26 +$14 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $20 +$12 +57%
Tajikistan vs. India: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 34m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 54m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $79 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $80 12h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $80 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $122 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $118 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $231 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $110 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $121 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $37 39h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $86 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $67 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $16 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $44 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $18 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.17 · official $669.94 (match) · 3500 history records