Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6131…033f other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$14
politics 41% −$15
sports 6% +$30
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 132 +2.3% -7.4% 9% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage114d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $408 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $372 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $173 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $399 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $421 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $170 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $376 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $160 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $830 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $408 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $221 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $438 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 24d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 25d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 25d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $188 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.99 · official $21.99 (match) · 403 history records