Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6130…f1ed world 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+4%) realized +$83 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%62W / 86L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$35
14 days−$36
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$98
other 22% +$241
economics 13% −$23
politics 11% −$11
tech 2% −$12
crypto 1% −$16
sports 1% −$2
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -40.2% -45.9% 22% 11% -50.0%
≤30d 20 +29.8% +17.4% 40% 25% -26.3%
≤90d 91 -17.4% -25.3% 34% 13% -24.4%
all 148 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 13% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 13% -3.3%
10% -31.7% 7% -12.6%
15% -38.3% 6% -21.0%
20% -44.3% 5% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 86
Open positions26
Markets (closed)148 / 174
History coverage114d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? No 83¢ 69¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 98¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR? No 100¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-59%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 91¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 51¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -55%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Jun 15 $27 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +150%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $9 −$2 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $2 +$2 +110%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round May 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 18 $2 +$18 +1126%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 May 18 $2 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? May 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 05 $2 −$1 -83%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap May 05 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $14 −$3 -18%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? May 05 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–A May 05 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $8 −$5 -71%
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the May 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 23 $1 $0 -7%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Apr 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +18%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 16 $8 −$3 -35%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $6 −$4 -75%
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $5 $0 +3%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ap Apr 06 $2 −$1 -94%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian par Apr 04 $1 $0 -30%
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parl Apr 03 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Apr 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will Podemos Perú (PP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber Apr 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $4 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 28h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 38h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $0 38h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.31 · official $92.28 · 1696 history records