Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x6130…8de9 crypto 334 markets active 4d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate78%260W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$18
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +2.4% -7.4% 76% 67% -11.5%
≤30d 334 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 70% -11.4%
≤90d 334 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 70% -11.4%
all 334 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 70% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 70% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 35% -19.9%
15% -24.7% 9% -27.6%
20% -32.1% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses260 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$4 -40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.06 · official $11.46 (match) · 667 history records