Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x612e…18f7 sports 1218 markets active 9h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-3%) realized −$73 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%793W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$45
other 11% −$7
weather 8% −$20
politics 4% −$1
crypto 2% +$5
tech 1% −$7
world 1% +$1
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -9.8% -18.4% 63% 61% -19.1%
≤30d 518 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 64% -12.1%
≤90d 653 -3.0% -12.3% 65% 61% -12.4%
all 1213 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 61% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 61% -12.2%
10% -20.6% 48% -20.6%
15% -28.2% 35% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses793 / 420
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1213 / 1218
History coverage228d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 62¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Saarlouis: Johan Oscar Lien vs Calvin Mueller Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Saarlouis: Amaury Raynel vs Sydney Zick Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $1 9h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 67¢ $1 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 75¢ $1 16h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $1 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $1 16h
ITF Saarlouis: Johan Oscar Lien vs Calvin Mueller BUY Calvin Mueller 59¢ $1 16h
ITF Saarlouis: Amaury Raynel vs Sydney Zick BUY Amaury Raynel 63¢ $1 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $1 16h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $1 16h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55¢ $1 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 85¢ $1 16h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 76¢ $1 16h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 74¢ $1 16h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 58¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 64¢ $1 16h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 74¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 80¢ $1 16h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 84¢ $1 16h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 79¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 78¢ $1 22h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 86¢ $1 22h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 89¢ $1 22h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 76¢ $1 22h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $1 22h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $1 22h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 54¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.94 · official $3.94 (match) · 2466 history records