Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x612b…48ed other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$33
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 24% −$21
politics 8% −$9
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage138d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $327 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $640 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $459 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $323 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $623 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $182 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 10h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 16h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 30h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 31h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 39h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 43h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records