Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6128…b632 crypto 312 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$775 (-10%) realized −$775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%108W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$745
7 days−$1,531
14 days−$1,020
30 days−$1,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$122
crypto 40% −$710
other 21% −$548
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -65.9% -69.1% 16% 16% -48.3%
≤30d 97 -48.6% -53.5% 25% 23% -27.2%
≤90d 110 -32.6% -39.0% 32% 29% -22.8%
all 305 -16.9% -24.9% 35% 32% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 32% -24.3%
10% -32.0% 28% -31.5%
15% -38.6% 23% -38.1%
20% -44.6% 21% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses108 / 197
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 312
History coverage151d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -94%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $35 −$8 -23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $59 −$24 -41%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $100 −$42 -41%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $466 −$465 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $204 −$199 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$10 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $205 +$37 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $55 −$52 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $214 −$210 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 +$19 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 +$132 +118%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$18 +23%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $213 +$182 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$28 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 17 $48 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$28 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Jun 16 $13 +$15 +118%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-05-01? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-27? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Konyaspor vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $31 −$6 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both T BUY 1¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 40m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) SELL 19¢ $27 43m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 24¢ $35 44m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $35 47m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $59 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $59 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $100 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 5¢ $2 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $466 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $204 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $61 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 36h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $242 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.00 · 741 history records