Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x6123…8b33 sports 1725 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-1%) realized −$129 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%1125W / 554L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$374
7 days−$306
14 days−$28
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$492
other 24% +$51
world 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 54% -14.1%
≤30d 1408 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 54% -7.7%
≤90d 1679 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 50% -8.2%
all 1679 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 50% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 50% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 42% -17.0%
15% -25.2% 31% -25.0%
20% -32.5% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1125 / 554
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1679 / 1725
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Over 80¢ 58¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 44¢ 76¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+74%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Over 31¢ 46¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+50%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? No 92¢ 93¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 77¢ 55¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 92¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 93¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 94¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 91¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 95¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 92¢ 80¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 95¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 94¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 38¢ 35¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spezia Calcio win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Jiujiang: Ognjen Milic vs Fajing Sun Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Jiujiang: Giles Hussey vs Alex Bolt Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $171 +$34 +20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $15 +$23 +152%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $15 +$28 +180%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 +$17 +114%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 +$20 +132%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $171 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 12h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 12h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 12h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $15 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $10 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $201 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $61 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 16h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.74 · official $680.74 (match) · 3500 history records