Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6122…7b8f weather 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-10%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 11 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤90d 11 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -23.1%
all 11 -16.1% -24.1% 0% 0% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -23.1%
10% -31.3% 0% -30.5%
15% -38.0% 0% -37.2%
20% -44.0% 0% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$10 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 20 $159 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 20 $103 −$19 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $133 −$30 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $208 −$36 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 19 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? SELL No 73¢ $116 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY No 76¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL No 47¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $103 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 52¢ $104 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 65¢ $133 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 67¢ $47 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $49 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 71¢ $173 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 85¢ $208 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? SELL No 50¢ $36 35h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 51¢ $38 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 58¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 57¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records