Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6121…d9ac politics 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% $0
other 24% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage243d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? Dec 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $15 33h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 185d
Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 185d
Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 221d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $49 242d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $49 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 9 history records