Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x611f…ec74 weather 866 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$360 (-0%) realized −$363 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%837W / 20L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$49
14 days+$75
30 days+$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$2,457
politics 21% +$575
other 20% +$1,120
culture 6% +$107
world 5% +$219
tech 2% +$43
sports 1% +$27
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 696 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 696 -0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 857 -0.8% -10.2% 98% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$186 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$5,226
Realized−$363
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses837 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)857 / 866
History coverage576d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,000 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $998 $999 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $946 $947 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $750 $750 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $428 $428 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,091 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,275 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $446 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $750 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $631 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $468 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $657 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $302 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $720 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $626 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $192 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $192 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $166 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $133 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $117 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $239 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,226.00 · official $5,226.00 (match) · 3020 history records