Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x611f…c3fe politics 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$115 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,283per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$23
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$93
other 37% −$13
sports 4% −$41
economics 3% −$6
tech 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 -5.8% -14.8% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 100 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 7% -9.6%
all 100 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,595) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$4 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,283
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $518 $518 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $376 $378 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,445 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,881 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,656 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,674 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,625 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,933 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $718 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $2,690 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,387 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $68 +$44 +65%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $3,139 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $82 +$36 +44%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $518 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $866 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $868 4h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $611 6h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $612 8h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $791 20h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $792 24h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $605 28h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $606 31h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $524 2d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $524 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $262 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $262 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,228 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,261 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,317 9d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,319 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $376 10d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,290 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,292 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.58 · official $895.58 (match) · 266 history records