Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x611e…70db world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$5
other 21% $0
crypto 11% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
all 42 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage403d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $64 +$4 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $41 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 30 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $51 47m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $17 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $27 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $45 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records