Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x611c…beae world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$41 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$30
world 38% −$5
politics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 0% -8.3%
all 8 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -8.3%
10% -27.1% 0% -17.0%
15% -34.2% 0% -25.1%
20% -40.6% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage71d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $279 $272 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) May 09 $482 +$19 +4%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $478 +$2 +0%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 08 $465 +$14 +3%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 07 $465 $0 +0%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-2.5) Apr 09 $199 +$10 +5%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $205 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $279 1h
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) BUY El Mokawloon El Arab SC 96¢ $386 40d
Spread: El Gouna SC (-1.5) BUY El Mokawloon El Arab SC 96¢ $96 40d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $384 40d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 40d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $478 40d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Ghazl El Mahalla SC 97¢ $465 41d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 98¢ $465 41d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $465 42d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2¢ $7 56d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2¢ $5 56d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2¢ $2 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 56d
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-2.5) BUY Club Olimpia 95¢ $199 70d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $205 70d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 71d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.18 · official $272.32 (match) · 26 history records