Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x611c…c2e2 other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$17
politics 28% −$12
sports 18% −$15
crypto 10% −$4
culture 4% −$6
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$2
finance 3% +$2
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 58 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 102 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 117 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 100
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $149 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $121 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $54 −$2 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $35 +$3 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $62 −$3 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $175 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $408 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $161 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $346 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 02 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $57 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $168 $0 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 58m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 26h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 95¢ $57 27h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $59 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 36h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $59 37h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $60 43h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 44h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $55 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $60 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $45 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.67 · official $53.67 (match) · 484 history records