Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x6118…8a3a sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$101 (+10%) realized +$124 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$210
14 days+$178
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$53
other 28% +$126
tech 10% −$20
finance 6% +$17
crypto 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +87.3% +69.5% 70% 70% +29.1%
≤30d 35 +58.4% +43.3% 63% 63% +10.0%
≤90d 35 +58.4% +43.3% 63% 63% +10.0%
all 35 +58.4% +43.3% 63% 63% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.3% 63% +10.0%
10% +29.6% 57% -0.5%
15% +17.0% 57% -10.1%
20% +5.6% 49% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +114% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-59%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 27¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $54 −$2 -5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$14 +40%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 21 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $11 +$67 +596%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $11 +$8 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 +$17 +474%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 +$29 +250%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$39 +393%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $11 +$7 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +115%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $51 +$28 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $52 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $34 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $46 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $0 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $79 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $10 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $36 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $36 43h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $12 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $11 3d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $12 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 14¢ $11 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $3 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $5 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.67 · official $181.67 · 93 history records