Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6116…9e3b
other · 29 markets active 17h ago
10.0score
+$26 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 14 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 25¢ 35¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes 44¢ 51¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 35¢ 21¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $4 +$4 +94%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $1 +$6 +632%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia May 17 $1 +$2 +159%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $3 +$5 +175%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? May 02 $2 +$3 +125%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? May 02 $6 +$4 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 01 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$16
world 35% +$5
politics 7% −$2
sports 7% +$5
tech 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 16h
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 29¢ $2 38h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $4 40h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 40h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $3 41h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 6d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 20d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 20d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 26d
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia BUY Slovenia 38¢ $1 26d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 26d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 28d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 29d
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL No 25¢ $1 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 31d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $2 34d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 48¢ $3 35d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 39d
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 40d
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +87%
net ROI/market (all)+86.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +97.0% +78.3% 100% 100% +65.6%
≤30d 7 +192.9% +165.0% 100% 100% +126.1%
≤90d 15 +106.3% +86.7% 87% 87% +66.5%
all 15 +106.3% +86.7% 87% 87% +66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.7% 87% +66.5%
10% +68.8% 80% +50.6%
15% +52.5% 80% +36.0%
20% +37.6% 67% +22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.04 · official $26.04 (match) · 46 history records