Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x6112…51af crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%45W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$6
sports 46% −$7
crypto 6% +$2
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses45 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage537d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $47 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $7 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5,994 −$6 -0%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $5,870 −$6 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Mar 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 12 $20 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $59 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 93d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 121d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $33 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 180d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 211d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $47 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $47 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $22 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 99¢ $47 334d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 392d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.78 · official $64.79 (match) · 113 history records