Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x6112…7c32 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
finance 12% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% +$1
other 4% +$1
sports 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.0%
all 34 +0.5% -9.0% 47% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $93 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $77 +$3 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $95 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $8 $0 +4%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Northwest Territories seat in the next Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Apr 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $6 24h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $16 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $46 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $47 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $47 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $39 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records