Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6112…bbb7 sports 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,261 (-45%) realized −$1,269 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%95W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$528
7 days+$528
14 days+$528
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,265
crypto 49% +$542
other 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 52% +29.5%
≤30d 30 +11.4% +0.7% 70% 50% +29.1%
≤90d 141 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 43% -34.3%
all 141 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 43% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 43% -34.3%
10% -17.5% 40% -40.5%
15% -25.5% 37% -46.3%
20% -32.8% 32% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$34 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,269
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses95 / 46
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage54d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 41¢ 50¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $72 +$31 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$26 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $130 +$110 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$26 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $72 +$53 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$12 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$23 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $72 +$51 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $68 +$92 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $158 +$231 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $191 +$119 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $2 +$1 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $2 +$2 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +48%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +62%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 24 $2 +$2 +93%
ITF Maringa: Mateus Alves vs Herman Hoeyeraal May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Maste May 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - X May 23 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $2 +$1 +55%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Italy May 22 $1 $0 +2%
World Championships: Finland vs. Great Britain May 22 $1 $0 +1%
World Championships: Canada vs. Slovenia May 22 $1 $0 +0%
World Championships: Germany vs. Hungary May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $36 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $28 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $62 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $61 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $117 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $57 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $37 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $78 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $73 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $126 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.31 · official $40.73 · 296 history records