Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610f…7148 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day107.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 42% -11.9%
≤30d 79 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 79 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 42% -11.9%
all 79 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 42% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 38% -20.3%
15% -38.3% 33% -28.0%
20% -44.3% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day107.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 76¢ 94¢ $31 $39 +$8 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $77 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$22 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$29 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $68 −$26 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $76 −$31 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $32 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $33 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $36 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.08 · official $33.29 · 148 history records