Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610e…5f70 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$6
other 36% $0
sports 18% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 34% -6.8%
≤30d 44 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 34% -6.8%
≤90d 44 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 34% -6.8%
all 44 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 34% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 34% -6.8%
10% -30.9% 30% -15.7%
15% -37.6% 27% -23.8%
20% -43.7% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$18 +360%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +156%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +160%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $90 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.01 · official $101.01 (match) · 78 history records