Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x610b…227d
crypto · 407 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses181 / 224
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)405 / 407
History coverage125d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 2 History 405 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 25¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $4 +$2 +63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $3 +$2 +45%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $3 $0 -5%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $6 +$12 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming end in a draw? Apr 17 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$5 +103%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Apr 15 $2 +$6 +249%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 15 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 15 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 15 $7 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 15 $8 +$12 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $14 +$26 +179%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $10 +$24 +251%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $6 +$11 +173%
Will Iraq win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $18 +$33 +181%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$82
sports 25% +$4
other 8% +$67
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall SELL Fury 99¢ $6 29m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 56m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $3 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 58¢ $1 2h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 59¢ $1 2h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 62¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 2h
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 100¢ $5 35d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 68¢ $3 35d
Canadiens vs. Sabres SELL Canadiens 100¢ $11 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 4¢ $1 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 22¢ $3 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 38¢ $2 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 32¢ $3 36d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 46¢ $5 36d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 4¢ $2 36d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 35¢ $3 57d
Kraken vs. Avalanche BUY Kraken 34¢ $2 57d
Kraken vs. Avalanche BUY Kraken 33¢ $3 57d
Ducks vs. Predators SELL Ducks 99¢ $8 57d
Ducks vs. Predators SELL Ducks 97¢ $6 57d
Ducks vs. Predators SELL Ducks 90¢ $5 57d
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 57d
Kraken vs. Avalanche BUY Kraken 32¢ $1 57d
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Club Blooming end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 57d
Kraken vs. Avalanche BUY Kraken 33¢ $3 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% +3.9%
≤30d 2 -18.4% -26.2% 50% 50% +3.9%
≤90d 251 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 41% -19.4%
all 405 +11.5% +0.9% 45% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 44% -9.8%
10% -8.8% 42% -18.4%
15% -17.6% 40% -26.3%
20% -25.7% 38% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.01 · official $2.01 (match) · 1971 history records