Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610a…186d crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$772 (-30%) realized −$884 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$458
other 8% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -29.1% -35.9% 38% 33% -38.1%
≤30d 24 -29.1% -35.9% 38% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 24 -29.1% -35.9% 38% 33% -38.1%
all 24 -29.1% -35.9% 38% 33% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 33% -38.1%
10% -42.0% 33% -44.1%
15% -47.6% 33% -49.5%
20% -52.7% 29% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$104 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$884
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage9d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 38¢ 80¢ $100 $212 +$112 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$169 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$103 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$79 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$155 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$75 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $106 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$65 +61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$85 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $108 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $108 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $264 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $183 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $107 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $108 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $106 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $71 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $107 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $109 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $108 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $107 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $110 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $54 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.84 · official $106.58 · 48 history records