Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6109…8607 politics 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$906 (+0%) realized +$906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%42W / 155L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,449per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$33
14 days−$65
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$308
politics 40% −$125
sports 10% +$1,290
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$6
world 2% −$7
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 +0.5% -9.1% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 119 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 3% -9.3%
all 197 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 13% -9.3%
10% -16.8% 12% -17.9%
15% -24.8% 11% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,994) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$7 · ×6.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses42 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage164d
Avg bet$1,449
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $150 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,237 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $2,093 −$3 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $6,004 −$8 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $243 +$1 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $3,156 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,965 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,782 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $4,466 −$7 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $151 +$2 +1%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,275 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,108 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,243 −$5 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,539 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,236 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $903 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $77 −$77 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,973 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $8,678 −$10 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $2,059 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $54 +$73 +134%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,210 −$2 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $66 +$72 +109%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,994 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $454 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,402 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,523 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,520 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $861 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $862 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $150 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $849 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $850 5h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $960 8h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $961 9h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $920 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $921 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $890 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $651 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $825 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $826 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $886 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $888 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $892 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $892 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $820 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $894 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $895 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $891 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.46 · official $149.46 (match) · 745 history records