Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6103…f2d9 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,953 (+14%) realized +$2,791 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%15W / 75L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$297
crypto 7% −$769
other 7% −$329
economics 5% −$1,131
finance 1% −$193
politics 1% −$192
sports 1% +$997
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +133.6% +111.3% 25% 25% +261.7%
≤30d 23 +29.0% +16.8% 17% 13% +7.0%
≤90d 90 -28.7% -35.5% 17% 14% -16.5%
all 90 -28.7% -35.5% 17% 14% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 14% -16.5%
10% -41.6% 13% -24.5%
15% -47.3% 12% -31.8%
20% -52.5% 12% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$753 vs −$170 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,015
Realized+$2,791
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses15 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)90 / 96
History coverage85d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $362 $962 +$600 (+166%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 27¢ $18 $34 +$17 (+93%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $277 $18 −$259 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $304 −$296 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $117 −$114 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$163 +213%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $149 −$145 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $146 −$143 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,174 +$9,729 +448%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $45 +$834 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 31 $593 −$593 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $200 −$200 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1,142 −$1,142 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $855 −$855 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $4,319 −$3,800 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 24 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 24 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $382 −$193 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 22 $567 −$567 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $949 −$946 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 19 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 16 $60 −$56 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 16 $200 −$187 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 13 $140 −$133 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 13 $86 −$81 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Apr 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Apr 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 08 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 08 $72 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 08 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 08 $40 +$54 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 08 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 08 $18 +$30 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 08 $18 +$20 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 08 $22 −$21 -93%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $2,441 −$409 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 08 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 08 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 08 $45 −$43 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 49m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $206 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $283 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $58 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $58 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $239 32h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $96 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $146 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $77 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $89 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $11,903 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $222 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $78 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $110 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $879 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $207 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $223 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $298 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $189 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.25 · official $1,015.25 (match) · 277 history records