Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6102…1913 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (318 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day318.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (318 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.8% +9.3% 55% 10% -8.6%
≤30d 20 +20.8% +9.3% 55% 10% -8.6%
≤90d 20 +20.8% +9.3% 55% 10% -8.6%
all 20 +20.8% +9.3% 55% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover318.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 10% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 10% -17.3%
15% -10.7% 10% -25.3%
20% -19.5% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day318.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $759 +$15 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $65 +$5 +8%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $171 +$12 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $32 −$4 -13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $441 +$17 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $327 +$34 +10%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $5 −$4 -74%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $15 −$7 -43%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 −$11 -55%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $100 +$61 +61%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $250 $0 -0%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $255 −$29 -11%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $102 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $329 +$13 +4%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $35 +$3 +8%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $301 +$3 +1%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $384 −$64 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $5 4m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $0 7m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $3 27m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $1 27m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $0 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $2 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $1 50m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 2¢ $5 51m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $28 51m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $18 51m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $24 52m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $48 52m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $16 53m
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Karmine Corp 68¢ $20 56m
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Karmine Corp 68¢ $104 56m
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $20 57m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 21¢ $25 58m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 21¢ $2 58m
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Karmine Corp 64¢ $5 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $32 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $51 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 95¢ $164 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 95¢ $0 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 95¢ $0 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 95¢ $88 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 94¢ $15 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Deep Cross Gaming 40¢ $5 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 94¢ $78 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Deep Cross Gaming 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records