Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6100…1c0b crypto 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-1%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate73%130W / 49L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day90.9pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,872
7 days+$2,978
14 days+$2,978
30 days+$2,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$134
other 29% −$1,448
sports 21% +$2,001
weather 1% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +18.5% +7.3% 83% 67% +9.2%
≤30d 158 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 28% -4.3%
≤90d 179 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 31% -9.0%
all 179 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 31% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 31% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 21% -17.7%
15% -28.2% 13% -25.6%
20% -35.2% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$140 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$998
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses130 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$256
Trades / day90.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $759 +$248 +33%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$74 -73%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $103 +$20 +19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $800 +$116 +14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $705 +$48 +7%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $101 +$39 +38%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$55 +107%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $870 +$186 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $850 +$20 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $2,023 +$509 +25%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $508 +$325 +64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,491 +$101 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,000 +$331 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,000 +$507 +25%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,001 +$1,597 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $493 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $491 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $480 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $532 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $502 +$67 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $548 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $538 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $536 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $520 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $500 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $489 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $487 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $485 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $517 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $61 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $531 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$28 +264%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $44 +$44 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $502 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $500 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $509 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $502 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $102 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $102 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $28 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $101 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 32¢ $122 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $103 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $876 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $800 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $140 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $998.14 · official $998.14 (match) · 3500 history records