Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

61 0x6100…35e2 other 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 600d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$25,692 (+16%) realized +$26,967 · open −$1,275

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$8,209per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,912now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$5,826

30 days−$5,733

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	7	-24.9%	-32.0%	29%	29%	-23.8%
≤90d	7	-24.9%	-32.0%	29%	29%	-23.8%
all	15	+4.5%	-5.4%	67%	60%	+5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.4%	60%	+5.5%
10% ← realistic here	-14.5%	33%	-4.6%
15%	-22.7%	27%	-13.8%
20%	-30.3%	20%	-22.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% too few recent

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,650 vs −$1,954 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage

Net worth$1,912

Realized+$26,967

Unrealized−$1,275

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage600d

Avg bet$8,209

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$2,487	$1,362	−$1,125 (-45%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$150	+$50 (+50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$150	+$50 (+50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$250	$125	−$125 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$250	$125	−$125 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$983	−$19	-2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$7,101	−$3,848	-54%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$3,050	−$2,605	-85%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 14	$5,763	+$662	+12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10,041	−$16	-0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$6,017	+$3,373	+56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$3,298	−$3,280	-100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 25	$35,808	+$12,069	+34%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$2,298	+$1,100	+48%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Nov 02	$21,093	+$3,184	+15%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025?	Nov 02	$12,418	+$245	+2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$14,560	+$2,047	+14%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3)	Oct 25	$19,994	+$2,190	+11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3)	Oct 17	$2,989	+$1,605	+54%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 07	$15,487	+$10,027	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$78	2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$25	2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$42	2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$95	2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$120	2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$130	2h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$127	2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$18	4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2,542	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	53¢	$496	12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	43¢	$3,253	12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Spain	12¢	$445	12d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	80¢	$3,050	12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	50¢	$468	13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$207	13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$7,101	13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$776	13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$6,425	13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	93¢	$1,583	13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	88¢	$736	13d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	88¢	$3,444	13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$10,025	13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5,542	13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$30	14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5	14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$8	14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$3,561	14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$897	14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9,390	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,911.71 · official $1,911.71 (match) · 191 history records