Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x6100…0b49 economics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$437 (-35%) realized −$437 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 95% −$491
crypto 5% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.1% +50.3% 33% 33% +154.3%
≤30d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 17% +44.2%
≤90d 11 -33.0% -39.4% 9% 9% -50.8%
all 11 -33.0% -39.4% 9% 9% -50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 9% -50.8%
10% -45.2% 9% -55.5%
15% -50.5% 9% -59.8%
20% -55.3% 9% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$92 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage59d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 27 $90 +$357 +398%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $52 −$37 -70%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $33 −$18 -54%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 08 $64 −$50 -78%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $389 −$371 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $199 −$55 -28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $48 −$15 -32%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $291 −$277 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $446 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $37 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $6 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes $15 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $14 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $66 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $65 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $157 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $10 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $10 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $39 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes $38 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $53 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $52 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes $106 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes $33 46d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No $33 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $64 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $52 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $26 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $52 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $146 47d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $48 47d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $194 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records