Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6100…2fda crypto 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%46W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% +$33
other 18% +$16
economics 13% +$26
world 13% −$57
tech 9% +$33
politics 9% +$2
culture 6% +$1
sports 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 47 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$66 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses46 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage543d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $212 $212 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 16 $400 +$3 +1%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 18 $160 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 14? Apr 18 $224 +$1 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 14 $190 +$5 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 14 $200 +$7 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 27 $166 +$4 +3%
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? Mar 06 $177 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $176 +$11 +6%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 10 $80 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 10 $271 +$15 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 21 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 16 $160 +$3 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 16 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? Dec 16 $320 +$3 +1%
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Nov 25 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 16 $86 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 16 $238 +$5 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 11 $321 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $200 +$12 +6%
Will 'Honey' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album o Oct 25 $120 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4800 on September 8? Oct 14 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $106K on September 8? Oct 14 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? Sep 08 $78 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6? Sep 08 $222 +$17 +8%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 06 $138 +$1 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $150 +$8 +5%
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be less tha Jul 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $16m? Jul 07 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 07 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $60 +$1 +2%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 03 $207 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.18 on April 4? Apr 25 $215 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 04 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Mar 09 $250 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 10 $195 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 23 $210 +$1 +0%
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025? Jan 23 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday? Jan 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 12 $18 $0 +0%
Solana above $185 on January 3? Jan 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $268 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $212 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $180 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $200 31d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $200 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $400 59d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 99¢ $224 63d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? BUY No 98¢ $160 63d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $200 81d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $166 102d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $190 102d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 94¢ $176 126d
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? BUY No 99¢ $177 126d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $80 146d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 95¢ $271 151d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $70 151d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $171 181d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $160 181d
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? BUY No 99¢ $320 203d
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? BUY Yes 100¢ $323 212d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? BUY No 98¢ $238 217d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 217d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $321 234d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $212 234d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 245d
Will 'Honey' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album o BUY Yes 100¢ $120 245d
Bitcoin above $106K on September 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $225 281d
Ethereum above $4800 on September 8? BUY No 100¢ $77 281d
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 6? BUY No 100¢ $78 314d
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6? BUY Up 93¢ $222 314d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $150 343d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.99 · official $394.99 (match) · 97 history records