Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60fb…08aa other 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$198 (-7%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%75W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$260
sports 6% +$37
world 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.1% -21.3% 47% 40% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 61 -21.4% -28.8% 44% 33% -24.2%
all 148 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 44% -16.6%
10% -25.0% 33% -24.6%
15% -32.3% 24% -31.9%
20% -38.9% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses75 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage116d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$10 -9%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$17 +16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$14 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$17 +22%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $18 +$7 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $3 +$4 +127%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $29 −$4 -13%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $23 −$6 -25%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $8 −$5 -62%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-26? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 34m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 35m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 46m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 47m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $61 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $41 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $55 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $44 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records