Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x60f9…7764 weather 816 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$948 (-1%) realized −$929 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%712W / 80L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$175
14 days+$338
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 1% -8.5%
≤30d 407 +4.3% -5.6% 93% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 792 +12.2% +1.6% 90% 9% -9.7%
all 792 +12.2% +1.6% 90% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 9% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -18.3%
15% -17.0% 4% -26.2%
20% -25.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$3,498
Realized−$929
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses712 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)792 / 816
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$122
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $491 $492 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $398 $400 +$2 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $398 $399 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $320 $322 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $144 $148 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? No 97¢ 92¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22? No 96¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? No 100¢ 24¢ $41 $10 −$31 (-76%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? No 75¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 22 $273 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$4 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on June Jun 21 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 21 $768 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $161 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1,236 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 19 Jun 20 $530 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $176 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $503 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 19 $1,026 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 19 $504 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on June Jun 19 $638 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 19 $223 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $695 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $778 +$31 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 18 $111 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 18 $852 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 18 $382 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 18 $549 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $398 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $398 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $56 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $299 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $299 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $199 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $192 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 26¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,497.86 · official $3,497.86 (match) · 3500 history records